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“As long as that idea lives on, al-Qaeda is very, very dangerous.”
Five years after bin Laden’s death, al-Qaeda still going strong
Five years ago on the first day of May, elite US special forces soldiers raided a walled compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and ended history’s most intense manhunt.
The death of Osama bin Laden was a significant symbolic blow to al-Qaeda, the violent jihadist organisation that he co-founded in the late 1980s.
But it was hardly the end of the group, which has lived on under the leadership of the bespectacled Egyptian physician Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Al-Qaeda is maybe stronger today than it was even at the time of the attacks of September 11, 2001,” says Scott Stewart, vice-president of tactical analysis at the intelligence firm Stratfor.
“It’s absolutely been diminished in some ways, but despite all the effort to stamp it out, al-Qaeda has managed to create an ‘arc of jihad’ that stretches from West Africa all the way to Southeast Asia.”
The organisation now claims a presence in 60 countries worldwide, with recent inroads in India and Bangladesh. It’s a situation that bin Laden always envisioned.
Al-Qaeda was intended to be the vanguard of a larger movement, a core of hardened jihadis who would provide resources and support to cells fighting apostate governments around the world.
“Always be sceptical of claims that al-Qaeda is on the verge of defeat, or that they’re irrelevant. Terrorist organisations wax and wane, but al-Qaeda has proven to be truly resilient,” says Jeremy Littlewood, assistant professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Fighting the long war
After 9/11, al-Qaeda became synonymous with terror. That has started to change in recent years, however, with the rise of the Islamic State (IS) and its campaign of incredible violence.
The two groups are now locked in a fierce battle for both practical gains, like fighters and territory, but also for the “hearts and minds” of jihadis, Littlewood says. It is a fight for the very soul of the broader jihadist movement.
Very different philosophies about how to wage war against their perceived enemies amplify this conflict.
Al-Qaeda has always taken a “long war approach,” a doctrine that bin Laden himself championed, according to Stewart.
It is absolutely essential, the reasoning goes, to defeat distant enemies-namely US and its allies - that prop up apostate regimes in the Middle East with money and arms. An enduring caliphate cannot be established until that happens. It could take 100 years, or it could take 1,000 years. No matter.
“Many more experienced jihadis have remained loyal to the idea at the centre of al-Qaeda that they should target Western states and meticulously lay the groundwork at the local level before a caliphate,” says Littlewood.
A more pragmatic approach
Despite IS’s battlefield successes, there’s growing consensus that al-Qaeda poses a greater long-term threat to both stability in the Middle East and to security of Western nations.
This sentiment was backed up in a January report published by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think-tank, that concluded the current US strategy has put too much emphasis on defeating IS while al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria has flourished.
Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, as it is alternatively known, has had a presence in Syria since the early days of the civil war. Perhaps more than any other satellite, Jabhat al-Nusra illustrates how al-Qaeda plans to remain a potent force for years to come.
“It’s taken a very pragmatic approach, ingratiating itself with local populations and working, when necessary, with other more moderate rebel groups to achieve what it wants, namely the defeat of the Syrian regime,” says Stewart.
An idea that lives on
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the group’s affiliate in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, has taken a similar approach, with fighters marrying into prominent families and allying with influential tribal leaders.
Once al-Qaeda becomes the dominant force in an increasing number of regions, it will be able to turn its attention back to its quintessential enemy: the US and its allies.
“It is fighting a long, long war, and its willing to fight that war for as long it takes, generation after generation. Al-Qaeda, more than anything, is an idea,” says Stewart.
>>http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/20...l-going-strong
Five years ago on the first day of May, elite US special forces soldiers raided a walled compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and ended history’s most intense manhunt.
The death of Osama bin Laden was a significant symbolic blow to al-Qaeda, the violent jihadist organisation that he co-founded in the late 1980s.
But it was hardly the end of the group, which has lived on under the leadership of the bespectacled Egyptian physician Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Al-Qaeda is maybe stronger today than it was even at the time of the attacks of September 11, 2001,” says Scott Stewart, vice-president of tactical analysis at the intelligence firm Stratfor.
“It’s absolutely been diminished in some ways, but despite all the effort to stamp it out, al-Qaeda has managed to create an ‘arc of jihad’ that stretches from West Africa all the way to Southeast Asia.”
The organisation now claims a presence in 60 countries worldwide, with recent inroads in India and Bangladesh. It’s a situation that bin Laden always envisioned.
Al-Qaeda was intended to be the vanguard of a larger movement, a core of hardened jihadis who would provide resources and support to cells fighting apostate governments around the world.
“Always be sceptical of claims that al-Qaeda is on the verge of defeat, or that they’re irrelevant. Terrorist organisations wax and wane, but al-Qaeda has proven to be truly resilient,” says Jeremy Littlewood, assistant professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Fighting the long war
After 9/11, al-Qaeda became synonymous with terror. That has started to change in recent years, however, with the rise of the Islamic State (IS) and its campaign of incredible violence.
The two groups are now locked in a fierce battle for both practical gains, like fighters and territory, but also for the “hearts and minds” of jihadis, Littlewood says. It is a fight for the very soul of the broader jihadist movement.
Very different philosophies about how to wage war against their perceived enemies amplify this conflict.
Al-Qaeda has always taken a “long war approach,” a doctrine that bin Laden himself championed, according to Stewart.
It is absolutely essential, the reasoning goes, to defeat distant enemies-namely US and its allies - that prop up apostate regimes in the Middle East with money and arms. An enduring caliphate cannot be established until that happens. It could take 100 years, or it could take 1,000 years. No matter.
“Many more experienced jihadis have remained loyal to the idea at the centre of al-Qaeda that they should target Western states and meticulously lay the groundwork at the local level before a caliphate,” says Littlewood.
A more pragmatic approach
Despite IS’s battlefield successes, there’s growing consensus that al-Qaeda poses a greater long-term threat to both stability in the Middle East and to security of Western nations.
This sentiment was backed up in a January report published by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think-tank, that concluded the current US strategy has put too much emphasis on defeating IS while al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria has flourished.
Jabhat al-Nusra, or the Nusra Front, as it is alternatively known, has had a presence in Syria since the early days of the civil war. Perhaps more than any other satellite, Jabhat al-Nusra illustrates how al-Qaeda plans to remain a potent force for years to come.
“It’s taken a very pragmatic approach, ingratiating itself with local populations and working, when necessary, with other more moderate rebel groups to achieve what it wants, namely the defeat of the Syrian regime,” says Stewart.
An idea that lives on
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the group’s affiliate in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, has taken a similar approach, with fighters marrying into prominent families and allying with influential tribal leaders.
Once al-Qaeda becomes the dominant force in an increasing number of regions, it will be able to turn its attention back to its quintessential enemy: the US and its allies.
“It is fighting a long, long war, and its willing to fight that war for as long it takes, generation after generation. Al-Qaeda, more than anything, is an idea,” says Stewart.
>>http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/20...l-going-strong
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